Riding the waves of complexity in floating offshore wind

• 6 years ago (2018-03-23)
• Junior Isles

Offshore wind 119

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Eoghan Quinn, Global Wind Lead at the WorleyParsons Group .

In 2017, the offshore wind industry hit milestones and the headlines . It was a breakthrough year that saw the sector become more commercially viable and realise more of its considerable global potential than ever before.

Wind Europe stated that last year the sector added a spectacular 25 per cent of capacity and that on average, the capacity of 500-turbines connected to the grid was up a fifth on 2016. What’s more, the Global Wind Energy Council reported offshore wind had its first ‘subsidy-free’ tender in Germany, for more than 1 gigawatt (GW) of new offshore capacity.

And that was just the start. Having made one leap from onshore to offshore, the industry is poised to make another equally significant move: the jump from fixed base to floating offshore wind. As with the first shift, this entails new layers of fiscal, technical, operational and regulatory complexity. It’s a tough challenge, but the rewards are enormous because the vast majority of potential global offshore wind resource is in waters too deep for traditional fixed offshore wind.

The leap is not dissimilar to when the oil and gas industry started building floating structures in the 1970s, a move which also opened up new deepwater markets such as the Gulf of Mexico, Latin America and West Africa. It’s a high risk, high reward strategy. And just like the evolution of floating structures in oil and gas – SPAR, tension-leg platforms, and even new low-motion FPSOs – those tapping into floating offshore wind will need to draw on the expertise of those familiar with the complexities of designing, building, operating and maintaining assets in these highly complex offshore environments, if they want to get it right.

Making waves

Wind is in the ascendancy. The last 12 months were monumental for the sector, with major projects for developers such as Orsted, Vattenfall and Statoil agreed without subsidies for the first time in the industry’s history. A target to reduce costs to €100/megawatt hour (MWh) by 2020 was surpassed four years early – and by a significant margin. And more than 3,000MW of new offshore wind capacity was installed in Europe alone (double that in 2016), taking the total to nearly 16GW.

Yet, we’re just scratching the surface. Most of today’s installed capacity is in shallow waters. It’s what you might call the low hanging fruit.

Some 80 per cent of Europe’s potential offshore wind resource is located in more than 60m water depth. This equates to 4,000GW of untapped potential in Europe alone, with – for example – a further 2,450GW in the US, 500GW in Japan and 90GW in Taiwan, according to the UK’s Carbon Trust and Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Fixed-based wind is not viable at these depths. Floating wind, however, is. Not only can it surmount the engineering challenges of deepwater installation, it offers a different approach to construction that also yields benefits. For example, instead of the majority of building work happening onsite at-sea using expensive heavy lift vessels, turbines can be mostly constructed quayside and pulled into position by (cheaper) tugs. Both manufacturing and construction costs could tumble.

By opening up deeper waters, floating offshore wind also make projects feasible in more remote locations, which typically means more powerful and reliable wind. Though this must be weighed against higher transmission costs, it is another potentially powerful economic string to floating offshore wind’s bow.

It’s perhaps unsurprising then, that thanks to the dramatic cost reduction seen in fixed bottom wind (a 32 per cent decrease since 2012 according to Offshore Renewable Energy), and increasing confidence in offshore renewables as an investment proposition, that developed and developing nations are now pursuing offshore wind development. In 2017 alone, more than €7.5 billion was invested in new European assets.

Japan has been trialling a number of floating offshore wind prototypes; France has launched ambitious plans for a string of pilot projects off its coast; and Norway recently agreed to move forward with demonstration projects in its own waters. These countries see the potential to build their economies around renewable energy. This energy transition is backed by major oil and gas developers, looking at ways to reduce their carbon footprint by diversifying their core business.

Last year was a turning point for the floating wind industry. Statoil installed the world’s first grid-connected offshore wind park, Hywind, offshore Scotland. The 30MW, five-turbine pilot wind park has already performed better than expected, despite experiencing a hurricane and wave heights up to 8.2m during its first three months in operation.

Statoil reports that the typical capacity factor for a fixed offshore wind farm during winter months in the North Sea is 45-60 per cent. Yet, remarkably, Hywind achieved 65 per cent during November, December and January 2018. The fact that a pilot floating project is already meeting and surpassing the performance standard set by its fixed-base forbears bodes extremely well for floating’s future.

Complex challenges

It’s a great start, but this is still a young industry.

As fixed offshore wind considers 16MW turbines as tall as London’s Shard (3MW was considered ambitious just five years ago), floating wind is still in its infancy. There’s not one technology proven to the point that it can be purchased off the shelf. A Carbon Trust study identified 30 different concepts in the market, mostly based on semi-submersible, tension leg platform or SPAR structures, all of which, incidentally, have been borrowed from oil and gas. However, many of these systems have yet to be tried, developed and proven for floating applications.

As firms start to move from concept to trials and even pilot arrays, they will need specialist expertise to de-risk and optimise their designs for the full project life-cycle. Some of these challenges will be technical, such as developing dynamic power cables that can survive harsh offshore environments or designing foundations and mooring turbines to the seabed. Others will be regulatory, such as the US’ Jones Act, which prevents developers from sourcing equipment from abroad, pushing up prices. Nor do the obstacles stop at construction: there will undoubtedly be operations and maintenance challenges, constraints around vessel availability and difficulties in servicing floating arrays efficiently.

Unlocking complexity

These challenges are not insurmountable. With the right experience and support, floating offshore wind can become an economic reality. The US Department of Energy’s projections suggest floating foundations will be cost-competitive with fixed wind by the mid-2020s, while IRENA predicts that the first large-scale floating windfarms could be installed by 2025.

We will start to see concepts that draw on existing capabilities, such as concrete structures that can be built, floated out and moored. We’ll also start seeing systems that are scalable and efficient, using off-the-shelf turbine towers, similar to the IKEA-style model we saw for onshore wind.

Success will come down to unlocking complexity, and one of the surest ways to boost its chances is to rely on proven expertise. But how do you find that experience in a fledgling sector?

One option is to look sideways. There are decades of accumulated relevant expertise in the oil and gas sector, dating back to the North Sea’s first floating production systems in the 1970s. There are people who know the environment and have cracked the main engineering challenges, with the experience to navigate the complex marine environment.

There are also experts working with governments and investors and reducing project costs. On the other side of the energy coin, there is a burgeoning pool of expertise in renewable projects, specifically wind. Developers who can collate this expertise, either in-house or through partnerships, will be best placed to succeed.

At WorleyParsons Group, we can draw on decades of experience across both the traditional and renewable energy sectors and are working with governments and companies around the world on onshore and offshore wind projects. For example, we are advising one partner on how floating wind can augment power supply to an oil and gas production facility. Each project presents different challenges and opportunities, but one consistent driver is the growth in the renewable market supported by the momentum of the global energy transition.

Floating offshore wind offers huge global green energy potential and projects are getting bigger and more multifaceted. But these complex, deep offshore environments will require robust technology, strong onshore infrastructure and the right expertise to ensure success. By partnering with companies in this space, the sector can unlock that complexity and begin to realise its considerable potential.

Author

Eoghan Quinn is a renewable energy sector specialist with over 10 years’ experience as a technology and business leader with a wide skillset covering renewables and engineering. Eoghan was previously responsible for WorleyParsons’ Western Australia New Energy business line, working strategically with multinational clients on their energy transition. As Global Wind Lead, Eoghan now heads the global offshore wind initiative for WorleyParsons Group.